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Gold Trade Imploding in India

Citation:世紀矿业信息网 Date:2016-7-29 16:37:11

Gold continued its downward drift on Monday as a stronger US dollar and the prospect of higher interest rates later this year tamped down expectations of further increases in the price of the yellow metal.


August gold futures in New York, the most active contract, traded around US$1,320/oz., after touching a near one-month low earlier in the day. Gold remains firmly in a bull market, however, rising more than 24% or some US$260/oz. so far in 2016.


The best year-to-date performance in decades, however, comes despite a dramatic change in the Indian market, traditionally the worlds largest importer of physical gold. The country has imported 700-900 tonnes a year in recent years, with a peak 947 tonnes in 2015. 


Importers have always been able charge premiums up to US$100/oz. and more during the busy festival and marriage seasons beginning in October every year.


But gold imports have virtually imploded with recent government import curbs and duties (an onerous 10%) and other trading restrictions introduced in recent years. Shipments have dropped to just 130 tonnes so far in 2016, trading at an unheard of US$65/oz. discount to the international price in July a development analysts say is killing the market.